All laws

Every law and bill on The AI Safety Menu, with what it costs America's lead over China over 3 years and how much it changes p(doom), the chance of an AI catastrophe. Rough starting points; play the menu to change them.

Safety laws

Law	Lead cost	p(doom)
Rulebook with a floor	under a day	−0.03%
Background checks	under a day	−0.03%
DNA order screening	none	−0.2%
Humans control nukes	none	−0.08%
Incident reports	none	−0.05%
Transparency report	under a day	−0.03%
Yearly audit	under a day	−0.05%
Outside safety tests	under a day	−0.2%
Safety tests	under a day	−0.15%
Safety plan	under a day	−0.05%
4-week test period	under a day	−0.15%
U.S.–China safety deal	under a day	−0.1%
Limits on AI surveillance	under a day	−0.03%
Whistleblower protection	under a day	−0.1%
Red team if risky	under a day	−0.15%
Fund defensive tech	under a day	−0.15%
Kill switch	1 day	−0.1%
Keep weights closed	2 days	−0.1%
Power-grab safeguards	2 days	−0.1%
Prove it's safe before launch	2 days	−0.3%
Chips that enforce rules	3 days	−0.15%
Checks before lab use	4 days	−0.25%
Clearances for lab staff	5 days	−0.1%
Liability insurance	5 days	−0.05%
Alignment moonshot	6 days	−0.3%
International AI agency	6 days	−0.4%
Liability for AI harms	9 days	−0.05%
30-day training notice	9 days	−0.05%
No capabilities papers	9 days	−0.08%
Air-gapped labs	9 days	−0.15%
Pause with China	11 days	−0.4%
Limit AI-run research	12 days	−0.25%
Limit AI agents	3 weeks	−0.2%
U.S. 6-month pause	7 weeks	−0.2%
License to train	2.5 months	−0.4%
A third of R&D on safety	3.5 months	−0.4%
Global superintelligence ban	3.5 months	−1.5%
Global pause	5 months	−1.3%
Global compute cap	8 months	−0.75%
U.S. compute cap	13 months	−0.4%
U.S. superintelligence ban	17 months	−0.6%

Safety laws that also gain lead

Law	Lead cost	p(doom)
Cloud ID checks	gains 5 days	−0.05%
Lock up the weights	gains 1 day	−0.15%

Other AI laws

Law	Lead cost	p(doom)
Ban deepfake porn	under a day	none
Label AI in political ads	under a day	none
AI layoff notice	under a day	none
Anti-bias rules	under a day	none
Watermark AI content	under a day	none
Chatbot safety rules	under a day	none
Block Big Tech AI deals	9 days	none
AI dividend	9 days	none
Pay for training data	3 months	none

Race to win

Law	Lead cost	p(doom)
Threaten to sabotage China's AI	gains 4.5 months	+0.1%
Chip export ban	gains 2.5 months	none
Government compute buildout	gains 2 months	+0.15%
AI Manhattan Project	gains 5 weeks	+0.2%
Fast permits for data centers	gains 4 weeks	none
Track exported chips	gains 2 weeks	none
Fund U.S. open models	gains 9 days	+0.15%
Shield AI firms from lawsuits	gains 7 days	+0.05%
Fast-track visas	gains 6 days	none
Rush AI into combat	gains 4 days	+0.15%
Build chips at home	gains 3 days	none
Public research compute	under a day	none
Killer robots, no limits	under a day	+0.15%
Cut government AI testing	under a day	+0.05%
Ban state AI laws	under a day	+0.15%
Stop model copying	under a day	−0.03%
$100K H-1B fee	6 days	none
Sell chips to China	6 weeks	none

Real bills

Law	Lead cost	p(doom)
SB 1047	gains 2 days	−0.33%
EU AI Act	gains 1 day	−0.66%
New York RAISE	under a day	−0.11%
Warner NSA bill	under a day	−0.15%
Hawley–Blumenthal	under a day	−0.32%
California SB 53	under a day	−0.17%
FRONTIER Act	3 days	−0.14%
2023 pause letter	7 weeks	−0.2%