The AI Safety Menu

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Government compute buildout

Government-backed AI compute buildout. Federal land, power and loan guarantees speed up giant AI data centers.

Grows lead by~2 monthsof America's lead over China, over 3 years
Raises p(doom) by~0.15%from a 5% starting estimate
Holds up○ Training○ Lab's own use○ Public release
Enact it on the menuSee the findings

What it does

Washington would treat AI compute and power like national infrastructure: fast-tracked permits, federal land, cheap financing or offtake deals, and national lab supercomputers. More chips come online sooner in the U.S.

Applies to: Large AI data center projects.

Where things stand

Private labs fund most frontier compute. Federal support today is permitting relief, DOE land leases (Paducah, Savannah River developers picked in 2026), and Genesis Mission lab clusters; the White House ruled out a federal 'bailout' of AI firms in Nov 2025.

Why it gains ~2 months

More compute sooner is the most direct way to speed the frontier: about three weeks gained a year in.

Biggest unknown: Whether power and financing, not permits, are the binding limit, meaning more federal help changes U.S. compute totals only a little.

Why it raises p(doom) by ~0.15%

Not a safety law. Uses federal land, power and financing to build AI data centers much faster.

Faster scaling shortens the time to prepare safeguards and sharpens the race.

The strongest case that it costs more

Supporters argue compute is America's biggest edge, and that China is building power plants far faster.

The debate

For

Against

Sources

Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.