The AI Safety Menu

All laws

AI layoff notice

Reporting of layoffs caused by AI. Big employers must report when they cut jobs because of AI.

Lead costAlmost noneof America's lead over China, over 3 years
No p(doom) effectNonefrom a 5% starting estimate
Holds up○ Training○ Lab's own use○ Public release
Enact it on the menuSee the findings

What it does

Large employers and federal agencies would report how many jobs they cut or stopped filling because of AI, and in some versions give advance notice naming the AI system and the tasks automated. The Labor Department would publish the totals.

Applies to: Large employers.

Where things stand

Since March 2025 New York's WARN form has asked whether 'technological innovation or automation' contributed to layoffs, but in its first year none of 160+ filers checked the box. Federal WARN requires 60 days' notice for mass layoffs but says nothing about cause.

Why it costs almost no lead

It applies to employers, not to building AI. Under a day.

Biggest unknown: Whether firms will honestly attribute layoffs to AI; the New York experience suggests they avoid the label, while Challenger data suggest they sometimes over-cite AI in announcements.

Its effect on p(doom)

Tracks how many jobs AI is replacing, so the government can respond to disruption.

Addresses economic disruption, not catastrophic risk.

The strongest case that it costs more

Employers argue it is hard to say which layoffs are caused by AI, so the numbers may mislead.

The debate

For

Against

Sources

Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.