The AI Safety Menu

All laws

Clearances for lab staff

Clearance-level vetting for lab staff. Background checks for all staff; clearance-level vetting for anyone who touches the model weights.

Cuts lead by~5 daysof America's lead over China, over 3 years
Cuts p(doom) by~0.1%from a 5% starting estimate
Holds up○ Training◐ Lab's own use○ Public release
Enact it on the menuSee the findings

What it does

Anyone with access to a lab's model weights or key research must pass vetting close to a government security clearance, with regular re-checks. This is the strict version; background checks alone are a separate item.

Applies to: Frontier developers' staff with access to model weights or key research.

Where things stand

Labs run some insider-threat programs, but none require government-style clearances. No 2025 or 2026 bill would mandate them. The Advanced AI Security Readiness Act asks the NSA to consider personnel vetting, and Senator Banks asked nine AI CEOs about their vetting in April 2026.

Why it costs ~5 days

Clearance-style vetting slows hiring and may lose some researchers, about 2 days of progress a year in. It also makes theft harder, which slows China by under a day. Net: about 2 days, and it could flip.

Biggest unknown: How many researchers vetting would slow down or exclude, and how much espionage it would actually stop.

Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.1%

Screens staff with access to the most powerful models the way governments screen people with access to secrets.

Clearance-level vetting is what governments use for secrets. It makes insider theft much harder.

The strongest case that it costs more

If vetting drove even a tenth of top researchers out of U.S. labs, many would go to labs elsewhere, some in China. That could cost months, and it would hand talent to the country the rule is meant to protect against.

The debate

For

Sources

Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.