Ban state AI laws
Federal preemption of state AI laws. States may not regulate frontier AI development, leaving one national rulebook.
What it does
Congress bars states from writing their own rules for frontier AI developers, leaving one national rulebook. The White House's 2026 framework asks for this with no new federal regulator.
Applies to: State laws that regulate AI developers.
- Prohibit states from adopting or enforcing laws that impose new obligations on AI developers.
- Leave generally applicable laws and protections for minors in place, as most proposals do.
Where things stand
No preemption law has passed. The Senate stripped a 10-year moratorium 99–1 in July 2025. An executive order in December 2025 created a Justice Department task force to challenge state laws; it had filed no lawsuits by September 2026. A House draft would preempt state laws on development for three years.
Why it costs almost no lead
State frontier laws are mostly paperwork labs already do, and the model prices them at under a day. So removing them buys back under a day. Preemption matters more for other state laws on how AI is used, which barely touch the frontier.
Biggest unknown: How much the broader patchwork of state AI laws, beyond frontier laws, actually slows frontier labs. No study has measured it.
Why it raises p(doom) by ~0.15%
Replaces state AI laws with one federal standard. It removes protections rather than adding them.
It removes the state frontier laws, which together cut about 3% of the risk here. A federal replacement could add some of that back.
The strongest case that it costs more
Supporters argue the real cost of a patchwork is not paperwork but uncertainty: fifty different liability rules could make labs slower and more cautious across every product. If that is right, preemption is worth more than a week.
The debate
For
- Sen. Ted Cruz called for preventing a patchwork of burdensome AI regulation, 2025.
- Reps. Jay Obernolte and Lori Trahan included preemption in the FRONTIER Act, 2026.
- The White House asked Congress to preempt unduly burdensome state AI laws, March 2026.
Against
- Sens. Maria Cantwell and Marsha Blackburn led the 99–1 vote stripping the state-law moratorium, 2025.
- Brad Carson, Americans for Responsible Innovation said a preemption draft turns the current floor into a federal ceiling, 2026.
Sources
- Senate strikes AI moratorium 99–1 (July 1, 2025)
- Executive Order 14365 (Dec 11, 2025)
- FRONTIER Act text: preemption clause
- Roll Call, three-year preemption draft (June 2026)
- NCSL, Artificial intelligence 2025 legislation: 38 states adopted around 100 measures
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.