Global superintelligence ban
Verified global ban on superintelligence. A treaty, with inspections, banning superintelligence everywhere until it can be built safely.
What it does
The U.S., China and other countries would agree not to build AI that is smarter than humans at almost everything until scientists agree it can be done safely. Inspectors would track AI chips and large data centers so that no country could secretly train such a system.
Applies to: Frontier AI development in every signatory country.
- A treaty, with inspections, banning superintelligence everywhere until it can be built safely.
Where things stand
There is no treaty, only petitions, open letters and draft texts written by nonprofits. The UN's new AI scientific panel and Global Dialogue are advisory and cannot restrict development.
Why it costs ~3.5 months
Both countries stop building the most powerful systems, so most of the cost cancels. We assume verification catches most cheating but not all, so China keeps about 30% of its progress. Net: about a month a year in.
Biggest unknown: Whether the U.S. and China could verify each other's compliance well enough that neither suspects a secret program.
Why it lowers p(doom) by ~1.5%
Stops every country, China included, from building AI smarter than humans until it can be done safely.
If it holds, it removes the race to build the systems people worry about most. Whether it holds depends on verification that doesn't exist yet, so our central estimate is well below its full potential and the range is enormous.
The strongest case that it costs more
Verification tools for AI are unproven. A treaty that China quietly breaks leaves America both behind and no safer, which is the worst corner of the map.
The debate
For
- Future of Life Institute, with signers incl. Geoffrey Hinton, Yoshua Bengio, Steve Wozniak, Susan Rice, Steve Bannon Statement on Superintelligence (Oct 2025) calling for a prohibition on superintelligence development until there is broad scientific consensus it is safe and strong public buy-in.
- MIRI Technical Governance Team (Scher, Abecassis, Barnett, Abeyta) Draft international agreement (Nov 2025) led by a U.S.-China coalition that caps training compute, consolidates chip clusters and verifies chip use.
- Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares Book 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' (Sept 16, 2025) argues for a global halt enforced by treaty, with GPU clusters monitored like nuclear facilities.
- ControlAI (Andrea Miotti et al.) 'A Narrow Path' (Oct 2024) proposes preventing superintelligence for 20 years via an international treaty and new oversight bodies.
Against
- President Donald Trump At the UN General Assembly (Sept 22, 2026) said the U.S. 'totally rejects' any 'globalist scheme' to control AI and mocked AI doom warnings.
- Dean W. Ball (former White House AI policy adviser) Called the 2025 superintelligence ban statement 'unserious and dangerous', arguing safety cannot be proven without building it and a ban would concentrate power in governments.
Sources
- Statement on Superintelligence: Statement text and live signature count (75,472 on Sept 25, 2026).
- MIRI: Summary of An International Agreement to Prevent the Premature Creation of ASI (May 12, 2026): Treaty thresholds, verification design and U.S.-China executive council.
- FLI press release on the statement and U.S. poll: 64% of Americans say superintelligence should not be built until provably safe and controllable.
- Euronews: Leaders push for stronger AI safeguards at UN as Trump touts 'Super Intelligence': U.S. rejection of global AI control at UNGA, Sept 2026.
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.