The AI Safety Menu

All laws

Chips that enforce rules

Chips with built-in controls. Advanced U.S. chips must carry hardware controls that can verify how they are used and enforce limits.

Cuts lead by~3 daysof America's lead over China, over 3 years
Cuts p(doom) by~0.15%from a 5% starting estimate
Holds up○ Training○ Lab's own use○ Public release
Enact it on the menuSee the findings

What it does

Every advanced AI chip sold would carry built-in security hardware that can enforce rules, such as refusing to run very large training jobs without a valid license or requiring a renewed permit to keep working. This would let the U.S., or a future treaty body, limit misuse of chips even after they leave the country.

Applies to: Advanced AI chips designed in the U.S.

Where things stand

U.S. export controls restrict who can buy chips. Since Dec 2025 Nvidia offers opt-in fleet software that can estimate a chip's country, while stating its GPUs have no kill switches or backdoors.

Why it costs ~3 days

Designing controls into chips takes engineering time and may put off some buyers. Chips that reach China, legally or not, become easier to track and limit. Net: about a day.

Biggest unknown: Whether on-chip controls can be made tamper-proof against state-level hackers without pushing foreign buyers to non-U.S. chips.

Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.15%

Builds controls into advanced chips so large training runs can be verified, licensed or switched off.

Hardware controls make future treaties checkable and rogue training runs harder. On their own they do little.

The strongest case that it costs more

Hardware backdoors can be hacked or abused, and foreign buyers may switch to chips without them. Nvidia has argued kill switches would undermine trust in U.S. chips.

The debate

For

Against

Sources

Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.