The AI Safety Menu

All laws

$100K H-1B fee

$100,000 fee on new H-1B visas. A $100,000 fee on each new H-1B petition for skilled foreign workers.

Cuts lead by~6 daysof America's lead over China, over 3 years
No p(doom) effectNonefrom a 5% starting estimate
Holds up○ Training○ Lab's own use○ Public release
Enact it on the menuSee the findings

What it does

Employers pay $100,000 for each new H-1B petition for a skilled foreign worker. A 2025 proclamation set the fee; courts have blocked it, and a similar fee has been proposed by regulation.

Applies to: New H-1B petitions.

Where things stand

The fee took effect in September 2025, was vacated by a federal court in June 2026, and remains unenforceable. The proclamation was extended to September 2027. New international student enrollment fell 17% in fall 2025.

Why it costs ~6 days

Frontier labs can afford the fee. The effect is a thinner pipeline of students and researchers, which builds slowly: about 2 days a year in.

Biggest unknown: How much a fee changes who comes to the U.S. to study and work in AI. The fee is currently blocked in court.

Its effect on p(doom)

Not a safety law. It changes who can come to America to work on AI.

It changes the pace of U.S. progress, not safety practices. No clear effect on risk.

The strongest case that it costs more

Talent compounds. If the U.S. becomes a less reliable destination, top students go elsewhere, and some go to China. The cost could grow year after year and exceed a month.

The debate

For

Against

Sources

Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.