Humans control nukes
Human control of nuclear launch decisions. Only humans may decide to launch nuclear weapons.
What it does
Only people, not AI systems, can decide to use nuclear weapons. The U.S. and China affirmed this in 2024, and U.S. law states it as policy.
Applies to: U.S. nuclear command and control.
- Require positive human action in executing presidential decisions on nuclear weapons (FY2025 NDAA, section 1638, as a statement of policy).
- Affirm human control over nuclear use decisions internationally (2024 Biden–Xi statement).
Where things stand
U.S. policy since the FY2025 defense bill. A stricter funding ban has not been enacted.
Why it costs almost no lead
It governs the military, not AI labs, so it costs America's AI lead nothing.
Biggest unknown: None for the lead.
Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.08%
Keeps AI from ever deciding on its own to launch nuclear weapons.
It keeps a human decision on nuclear launch. That addresses a narrow but severe risk.
The strongest case that it costs more
There is no plausible case that it slows frontier AI. The debate is whether a statement of policy is strong enough.
The debate
For
- Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Ted Lieu said humans must be in the loop of any nuclear launch, 2024.
- Friends Committee on National Legislation urged Congress to prohibit AI in nuclear launch decisions, 2026.
Sources
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.