Block Big Tech AI deals
Antitrust scrutiny of frontier AI deals. Regulators block or unwind deals that let a few companies control frontier AI.
What it does
Regulators would block or unwind deals, exclusive cloud-compute contracts and talent 'acquihires' that let a few Big Tech firms lock up frontier AI, and would keep distribution channels open to rival assistants. The aim is several independent frontier labs rather than one or two giants tied to cloud owners.
Applies to: Partnerships and investments between cloud giants and frontier AI labs.
- Regulators block or unwind deals that let a few companies control frontier AI.
Where things stand
Existing merger and monopoly law applies, and Google is barred (Mehta ruling, Sept 2, 2025) from exclusive deals for Search, Chrome, Assistant and the Gemini app. No agency has blocked a frontier AI partnership.
Why it costs ~9 days
Blocking lab–cloud deals could slow some labs' access to compute: about 3 days.
Biggest unknown: Whether more frontier competitors lowers risk (fewer chokepoints, less power concentration) or raises it (faster racing, more labs to secure), which decides the sign of this item on p(doom).
Its effect on p(doom)
Stops a few tech giants from locking up frontier AI through exclusive cloud and investment deals.
Debated. More competitors can mean more racing, while fewer can mean dangerous concentration of power. No clear effect on p(doom).
The strongest case that it costs more
Frontier AI needs huge capital. Breaking up partnerships could slow U.S. labs while China's national champions face no such limits.
The debate
For
- Lina Khan (FTC Chair until 2025) Jan 2025: enforcers must guard against strategies that undermine open markets in generative AI; led the 6(b) study
- Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Ron Wyden, Richard Blumenthal Feb 4, 2026 letter urging DOJ and FTC to probe Google, Meta and Nvidia reverse acquihires as de facto mergers
- European Commission (Teresa Ribera) Feb 2026 statement of objections to Meta over blocking rival AI assistants on WhatsApp
- UK Competition and Markets Authority May 2026 SMS investigation into Microsoft's business software, citing generative and agentic AI
Against
- FTC Commissioners Melissa Holyoak and Andrew Ferguson Jan 2025 partial dissent: act circumspectly to keep America first in AI; dissented from part of the 6(b) report
- ITIF (Robert Atkinson) Argues antitrust should put U.S. competitiveness first, and that attacking big U.S. tech firms helps China (2018, restated since)
- Nvidia 2026: the Groq deal is 'the American system working as designed' to promote innovation
Sources
- FTC Staff Report on AI Partnerships and Investments 6(b) Study: Primary report, Jan 2025
- SDxCentral: Nvidia's Groq deal facing DOJ probe: Sept 2026, cites NYT
- DOJ: Department of Justice wins significant remedies against Google: Sept 2025 remedies extending to Gemini
- CMA launches SMS investigation into Microsoft's business software ecosystem: UK, May 2026
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.