New York RAISE
New York RAISE Act. New York's version of SB 53, with a 72-hour incident clock and an oversight office in the Department of Financial Services.
What it does
New York's version of California's law, starting January 2027. It has a faster 72-hour incident deadline and a state office that can write new rules.
Applies to: Frontier models above 10^26 FLOP; large developers with revenue above $500M.
- Publish and follow a frontier AI framework, updated annually.
- Publish a transparency report before deploying a new or substantially modified model.
- Report critical safety incidents within 72 hours; 24 hours to law enforcement if imminent risk.
- Quarterly summaries of internal-use risk assessments; a biennial disclosure statement to DFS.
- Oversight office in DFS with rulemaking authority. Penalties up to $1M first, $3M thereafter.
- The March 2026 amendment removed the original bill's annual audits, unreasonable-risk deployment ban and whistleblower provisions.
What's in it: Safety plan, Transparency report, Incident reports
Where things stand
As amended, RAISE mirrors SB 53 closely, so a lab compliant in California is compliant in New York with different deadlines and a different regulator. Labs already do all of it.
Why it costs almost no lead
Its parts are paperwork labs already do, so the effect on the lead is under a day.
Biggest unknown: Same as SB 53. The 72-hour incident clock is faster but still starts after the incident.
Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.11%
New York's law: public safety plans and fast incident reports from the biggest labs.
The strongest case that it costs more
DFS is a serious financial regulator with rulemaking power and a habit of using it. If it uses that power to define catastrophic-risk thresholds or to require pre-deployment filings, the law's price could rise well above its statutory text. The current price is for the statute as written, not for what DFS might do with it.
The debate
For
- Sen. Andrew Gounardes and Asm. Alex Bores sponsored the bill, which Gov. Hochul signed, 2025.
Against
- Trump administration ordered a Justice Department task force to challenge state AI laws, December 2025.
Sources
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.