Cut government AI testing
Cut government AI safety testing. Cut the budget and staff of the government's AI testing center.
What it does
Government would do less or narrower testing of frontier models for dangerous abilities, relying more on companies' own checks. Money and staff for independent evaluators would shrink or stay flat.
Applies to: Federal AI testing programs.
- Cut the budget and staff of the government's AI testing center.
Where things stand
CAISI runs on about $15M a year ($10M FY26 appropriation plus a $10M loan), with voluntary pre-release access under a June 2, 2026 executive order (up to 30 days, closed models only).
Why it costs almost no lead
Labs spend a little less time with government testers: under a day gained.
Biggest unknown: Whether CAISI's small, voluntary, closed-model-only testing is enough to catch dangerous capabilities before release, or whether it will be cut further in final FY27 appropriations.
Why it raises p(doom) by ~0.05%
Not a safety law. Shrinks the government office that tests frontier models for dangers.
Government testers are one of the few outside checks on frontier models before release.
The strongest case that it costs more
Supporters argue testing should focus on national security and that labs test more thoroughly than government can.
The debate
For
- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick June 2025: 'For far too long, censorship and regulations have been used under the guise of national security.'
- Vice President JD Vance Feb 11, 2025 Paris summit: the AI future 'will not be won by hand-wringing about safety'.
- House Appropriations Committee (Republican majority) June 2026: FY27 CJS bill funds CAISI at $15M and cuts NIST from $1.85B to $1.30B.
Against
- Institute for Progress (Weinbaum and Tellis) May 2026: says CAISI needs $84M a year to do its job, about the cost of one F-35.
- Paulo Carvao et al., Harvard Kennedy School / TechPolicy.Press July 2025: the rename shifts priorities from risk mitigation to accelerationism.
- Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) Sept 2026: wants mandatory federal testing via national labs, not company self-testing.
Sources
- Commerce: Lutnick statement on transforming AISI into CAISI (June 2025): Official rename announcement.
- IFP: What will it cost for the US to be ready (May 13, 2026): CAISI budget now, FY27 request, needs.
- CRA: FY27 House CJS (June 2026): NIST and CAISI House numbers; FY27 request $854M NIST.
- Cybersecurity Dive: NIST will test frontier models (May 2026): CAISI deals with Google, Microsoft, xAI added to OpenAI and Anthropic.
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.