Keep weights closed
Limits on releasing open-weight models. No publishing the weights of models above a capability threshold. API access stays allowed.
What it does
Developers may not publish the weights of models above a capability threshold. They can still offer those models through an app or API.
Applies to: Models above a capability threshold.
- Prohibit publishing the weights of models above a capability threshold.
- Allow access through hosted APIs and apps.
Where things stand
No U.S. law restricts open weights. The 2025 AI Action Plan encourages open models and leaves the release decision to developers. Most U.S. frontier models are closed; Chinese labs release the largest open models.
Why it costs ~2 days
Most U.S. frontier models are already closed, so the cost to U.S. progress is under a day. Keeping weights closed denies China free copies, which matters only if China depends on U.S. models; Chinese labs already release the largest open models.
Biggest unknown: How much China gains from U.S. open weights when Chinese labs already publish the largest open models.
Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.1%
Keeps the most dangerous models from being downloaded by anyone, including terrorists and rival states.
Once weights are public, safeguards can be stripped out. But open models also help safety research, and Chinese labs already release large open models, so this is debated.
The strongest case that it costs more
Open models are how most researchers, universities and startups work with frontier AI. Closing them could slow U.S. research broadly and cede the open ecosystem to Chinese models, which already lead downloads.
The debate
For
- Sen. Josh Hawley introduced a bill to decouple U.S. AI from China, including banning downloads of models like DeepSeek, 2025.
- Henry Papadatos, SaferAI said dangerous capabilities should not be easily accessible by anyone anywhere, 2026.
Against
- NTIA found evidence insufficient to warrant restrictions and recommended monitoring, 2024.
- A 25-company coalition including Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft and Hugging Face wrote against open-weight restrictions, 2026.
Sources
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.