FRONTIER Act
FRONTIER Act (Obernolte–Trahan). A federal SB 53 with audits, a Commerce under secretary for AI security, and preemption of state developer rules.
What it does
A proposed federal law that sets California-style rules nationwide, adds outside audits, and stops states from writing their own versions.
Applies to: Frontier models above 10^26 FLOP; large developers ($50M revenue and $1B AI spend) and very large developers ($5B and $10B).
- Frontier AI framework, annual third-party audits, transparency reports, incident reporting within 72 hours (24 hours if imminent), quarterly risk assessments.
- Very large developers: licensed independent verification organization assessments every six months.
- New Under Secretary of Commerce for AI Security. Penalties up to $1M per violation per day; $10M for emergency-order violations.
- Preempts state laws imposing new developer obligations in transparency, third-party auditing and incident reporting, with carve-outs for deployers, minors and procurement.
What's in it: Safety plan, Yearly audit, Transparency report, Incident reports
Where things stand
Everything in it is already practiced voluntarily or required by SB 53 and RAISE, except the six-monthly independent verification assessments, which resemble the audits SB 1047 proposed.
Why it costs ~3 days
Mostly paperwork plus audits. The model estimates about a day of lost U.S. progress.
Biggest unknown: Whether the six-monthly independent verification assessments for very large developers ever become a release gate in practice.
Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.14%
A federal version of California's law, with audits, that would override state rules.
The strongest case that it costs more
An under secretary with emergency-order power and a $1M-a-day penalty is a regulator that can stop a launch by letter. The statute does not say when that power is used. The price here assumes it is used rarely; a critic would say federal emergency powers, once created, are used.
The debate
For
- Reps. Jay Obernolte and Lori Trahan introduced the bill with members of both parties, July 2026.
- Foundation for American Innovation called it Congress's best AI bill yet, 2026.
Sources
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.