Track exported chips

What it does

Export-controlled AI chips must carry a way to verify where they are, and exporters must report any sign that chips were diverted or tampered with.

Applies to: Export-controlled AI chips and their exporters.

• Within 180 days, require location verification on export-controlled AI chips (Chip Security Act).
• Require exporters to report diversion or tampering.
• Study further security mechanisms within a year.

Where things stand

Not yet law. The Chip Security Act passed a House committee in March 2026 and was added to the Senate's defense bill in July 2026. Nvidia has released opt-in location tools.

Why it gains ~2 weeks

It costs U.S. labs nothing. Smuggled chips may be about a third of China's AI compute, so making smuggling harder slows China: about 5 days a year in.

Biggest unknown: How much smuggling verification would stop, and how quickly smugglers would adapt.

Its effect on p(doom)

Stops advanced chips from being smuggled to China.

It makes smuggling harder. The effect on risk is debated.

The strongest case that it costs more

Smugglers adapt: they rent chips abroad, route through third countries, or spoof location checks. If verification only shifts smuggling into cloud rental, the benefit could be near zero.

The debate

For

• Sen. Tom Cotton and Rep. Bill Huizenga introduced the Chip Security Act, 2025.
• Rep. John Moolenaar, House China Select Committee said America must defend its semiconductor advantage, 2026.
• Americans for Responsible Innovation backed adding it to the defense bill, 2026.

Against

• David Reber, Nvidia wrote that kill switches and backdoors create single points of failure, 2025.

Sources

• Chip Security Act bill text (2025)
• Epoch AI, Chip smuggling (Apr 2026): median 660,000 H100-equivalents smuggled through 2025
• CNAS, Countering AI chip smuggling (June 2025)
• FDD on the Super Micro-linked smuggling indictment (Mar 2026)