The AI Safety Menu

All laws

AI dividend

AI windfall dividend. A share of AI companies' windfall profits, or a tax on AI, goes to the public.

Cuts lead by~9 daysof America's lead over China, over 3 years
No p(doom) effectNonefrom a 5% starting estimate
Holds up○ Training○ Lab's own use○ Public release
Enact it on the menuSee the findings

What it does

A slice of AI company profits or equity would flow into a public fund that pays every adult a yearly dividend, or funds jobs if unemployment rises. Companies might also sign voluntary pledges, like the Windfall Clause, to give away profits above an extreme threshold.

Applies to: AI companies above a profit or revenue threshold.

Where things stand

Only voluntary structures: the OpenAI Foundation holds about 26% of OpenAI Group PBC (valued at about $130 billion, Oct 2025) and runs a People-First AI Fund ($40.5 million to 208 nonprofits). No public AI dividend or token tax is in force.

Why it costs ~9 days

Taking a share of AI profits leaves slightly less money for compute and research: about 3 days.

Biggest unknown: Whether AI profits become large and concentrated enough to share, and whether taxing them now would slow U.S. labs relative to China.

Its effect on p(doom)

Shares the wealth from AI with everyone, not just the companies that build it.

It spreads the gains from AI and limits concentrated wealth. It doesn't target catastrophic risk.

The strongest case that it costs more

Taxing AI profits could push investment abroad and slow U.S. labs more than expected.

The debate

For

Against

Sources

Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.