Limits on AI surveillance
Limits on government AI surveillance. Bans or strictly limits government use of AI for mass surveillance.
What it does
Governments could not use AI to identify or track people en masse in public, for example live face scanning of crowds or protests, except in narrow, court-approved cases. Agencies would have to delete biometric data collected illegally, and people could sue over violations.
Applies to: Government agencies using AI for surveillance.
- Bans or strictly limits government use of AI for mass surveillance.
Where things stand
About 16 to 21 U.S. cities and counties (starting with San Francisco in 2019) ban police facial recognition and roughly 15 states restrict it, but federal agencies face no statute. ICE's Mobile Fortify app lets agents match faces in the field against about 200 million images, and people cannot opt out.
Why it costs almost no lead
It limits how governments use AI, not how labs build it. Under a day.
Biggest unknown: Whether limits would hold against national-security and immigration exemptions, since the biggest users (federal agencies) are the ones hardest to bind and bans are often sidestepped by asking other agencies to run searches.
Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.03%
Stops governments using AI to watch everyone, like real-time facial recognition in public.
It mainly protects civil liberties. It slightly lowers the chance that AI helps entrench unchecked power.
The strongest case that it costs more
Police and intelligence agencies argue AI surveillance catches criminals and terrorists, and that bans leave them behind China's capabilities.
The debate
For
- Sen. Ed Markey, Sen. Jeff Merkley, Sen. Ron Wyden, Rep. Pramila Jayapal Feb 2026 ICE Out of Our Faces Act banning ICE and CBP facial recognition and requiring data deletion
- ACLU Backs the Facial Recognition and Biometric Technology Moratorium Act (2023) and endorsed the 2026 ICE bill
- Electronic Frontier Foundation, EPIC, Fight for the Future Endorsed the 2026 ICE Out of Our Faces Act
- European Union AI Act Article 5 ban on real-time remote biometric ID for law enforcement, applying since Feb 2025
Against
- Security Industry Association Strongly opposes blanket federal bans, saying they block documented law enforcement benefits; prefers use rules
- Illinois Association of Chiefs of Police and Illinois Sheriffs' Association Opposed a 2026 Illinois bill to bar police facial recognition; the bill stalled
- California Police Chiefs Association Argues facial recognition gives actionable leads and is needed for events like the 2026 World Cup and 2028 Olympics
Sources
- EU AI Act Article 5: Prohibited AI Practices: Text of the EU ban and exceptions
- FPF: Red lines under the EU AI Act, real-time RBI for law enforcement: Analysis of the exceptions
- Markey et al. press release, ICE Out of Our Faces Act (Feb 5, 2026): Current federal bill and endorsers
- 404 Media: Inside ICE's facial recognition app of 200 million images: What government AI surveillance looks like today
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.