The AI Safety Menu

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Limits on AI surveillance

Limits on government AI surveillance. Bans or strictly limits government use of AI for mass surveillance.

Lead costAlmost noneof America's lead over China, over 3 years
Cuts p(doom) by~0.03%from a 5% starting estimate
Holds up○ Training○ Lab's own use○ Public release
Enact it on the menuSee the findings

What it does

Governments could not use AI to identify or track people en masse in public, for example live face scanning of crowds or protests, except in narrow, court-approved cases. Agencies would have to delete biometric data collected illegally, and people could sue over violations.

Applies to: Government agencies using AI for surveillance.

Where things stand

About 16 to 21 U.S. cities and counties (starting with San Francisco in 2019) ban police facial recognition and roughly 15 states restrict it, but federal agencies face no statute. ICE's Mobile Fortify app lets agents match faces in the field against about 200 million images, and people cannot opt out.

Why it costs almost no lead

It limits how governments use AI, not how labs build it. Under a day.

Biggest unknown: Whether limits would hold against national-security and immigration exemptions, since the biggest users (federal agencies) are the ones hardest to bind and bans are often sidestepped by asking other agencies to run searches.

Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.03%

Stops governments using AI to watch everyone, like real-time facial recognition in public.

It mainly protects civil liberties. It slightly lowers the chance that AI helps entrench unchecked power.

The strongest case that it costs more

Police and intelligence agencies argue AI surveillance catches criminals and terrorists, and that bans leave them behind China's capabilities.

The debate

For

Against

Sources

Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.