U.S. superintelligence ban
Ban on superintelligence. Ban AI that outperforms people across most areas, and pause advanced development until regulators set rules.
What it does
No one may build AI that outperforms people across most areas. Under the Sanders–Casar bill, advanced AI development would also pause until a new federal Department of AI writes safety rules.
Applies to: Frontier AI development above compute thresholds set each year.
- Permanently prohibit superintelligent AI, defined as exceeding humans across most domains or able to disempower humanity.
- Pause advanced AI development until a new cabinet-level Department of AI sets safety rules.
- Use compute thresholds, updated yearly, to target recursive self-improvement; penalties up to 20 years in prison.
- Direct the U.S. to seek international agreements.
Where things stand
No lab has stopped frontier development. Polls show broad public support for going slower: a 2025 Future of Life Institute poll found 64% of Americans say superhuman AI should not be built until proven safe, or never.
Why it costs ~17 months
While the pause holds, the U.S. frontier barely moves. A year in, America is about 5.5 months behind where it would have been, assuming China does not join.
Biggest unknown: How long the pause would last and how much research would continue during it.
Why it lowers p(doom) by ~0.6%
Stops U.S. labs from building AI smarter than humans until there's a way to control it.
It directly stops U.S. labs from building the systems people worry about most. China isn't bound, and a ban is hard to define and enforce, so the range is very wide.
The strongest case that it costs more
A pause with no end date may last far longer than a year, and a permanent ban on the most capable systems would end the U.S. frontier altogether. If China does not join, the lead would be gone within the first year.
The debate
For
- Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Greg Casar introduced the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act, September 2026.
- MIRI said humanity needs to back off from building superintelligence, 2026.
- Future of Life Institute organized the Statement on Superintelligence calling for a prohibition, 2025.
Against
- Gary Marcus called a permanent, unilateral ban too broad but supports a temporary pause, 2026.
- Caleb Max, National AI Association called the bill dead on arrival, 2026.
Sources
Rough starting points, not precise forecasts. Lead costs assume China doesn't depend on U.S. models, the case least favorable to safety laws, and count 3 years. On the menu you can change every assumption and put in your own numbers. Last priced 2026-09-26.